{"id":21974,"date":"2016-11-08T08:54:39","date_gmt":"2016-11-08T14:54:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/innovatori.space\/lat21\/?p=21974"},"modified":"2016-11-08T09:06:13","modified_gmt":"2016-11-08T15:06:13","slug":"la-economia-mexicana-ante-las-elecciones-en-estados-unidos","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/l21.mx\/?p=21974","title":{"rendered":"LA ECONOM\u00cdA MEXICANA ANTE LAS ELECCIONES EN ESTADOS UNIDOS"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Noviembre de 2016<\/p>\n

Por Ana Cecilia Quevedo, de Marketing Consultants<\/em><\/p>\n

ANTECEDENTES<\/strong><\/p>\n

Durante la presente campa\u00f1a electoral en Estados Unidos los candidatos han hablado de M\u00e9xico como nunca antes y tambi\u00e9n como nunca antes el futuro de la econom\u00eda mexicana ha sido afectado por una campa\u00f1a y esto se debe b\u00e1sicamente al factor de volatilidad creado por Donald Trump, candidato del partido republicano.<\/span><\/p>\n

En campa\u00f1as presidenciales anteriores, la diferencia de lo que se pod\u00eda esperar del candidato dem\u00f3crata y del candidato republicano era peque\u00f1a en comparaci\u00f3n con las expectativas tan distintas que crean Donald Trump y Hillary Clinton actualmente<\/span><\/p>\n

De hecho, desde hace cinco meses cuando Trump fue nominado por su partido como candidato a la presidencia, el peso ha sido la moneda que peor desempe\u00f1o ha tenido dentro de los pa\u00edses emergentes, as\u00ed que los efectos de las campa\u00f1as ya llevamos tiempo sinti\u00e9ndolos: cuando Clinton sube en las encuestas el peso repunta, cuando la va bien a Trump el peso sufre.<\/span><\/p>\n

Los pron\u00f3sticos de la marcha de la econom\u00eda mexicana y en especial del peso, son diametralmente opuestos seg\u00fan quien gane las elecciones, como veremos ahora.<\/span><\/p>\n

SI GANA TRUMP<\/strong><\/p>\n

Si gana Trump aumentar\u00e1 la volatilidad en todos los mercados financieros del mundo y se espera una gran crisis a nivel global, no s\u00f3lo en M\u00e9xico. En M\u00e9xico los especialistas esperan que los efectos sean especialmente grandes debido a que nuestra econom\u00eda est\u00e1 en gran medida ligada a Estados Unidos.<\/span><\/p>\n

Trump es autoritario e impredecible y durante su campa\u00f1a ha hablado de renegociar o incluso salir del TLC de Am\u00e9rica del Norte y de cerrar fronteras, apuntando a pol\u00edticas proteccionistas, por lo cual de ganar Trump se espera una r\u00e1pida devaluaci\u00f3n del peso que algunos analistas marcan hasta una paridad de $24 a $25 pesos, aunque la mediana de una encuesta entre analistas econ\u00f3micos se situ\u00f3 en $21.50 pesos por d\u00f3lar.<\/span><\/p>\n

SI GANA CLINTON<\/strong><\/p>\n

Hillary Clinton es una pol\u00edtica profesional y de esta forma sus acciones son m\u00e1s predecibles. De ganar eln estas elecciones, se espera lo que los especialistas llaman un \u201crally\u201d a favor del peso, que recuperar\u00eda r\u00e1pidamente terreno frente al d\u00f3lar hasta llegar a $18.30 para fines de 2016 y el pr\u00f3ximo evento importante ser\u00eda la decisi\u00f3n de la Fed de subir o no las tasas de inter\u00e9s en Estados Unidos en el mes de diciembre, lo que producir\u00eda una migraci\u00f3n de dinero de las econom\u00edas emergentes hacia el d\u00f3lar.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00a0 Noviembre de 2016 Por Ana Cecilia Quevedo, de Marketing Consultants ANTECEDENTES Durante la presente campa\u00f1a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":21977,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","_mbp_gutenberg_autopost":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,23],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-empresas-y-negocios","category-noticias"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLA ECONOM\u00cdA MEXICANA ANTE LAS ELECCIONES EN ESTADOS UNIDOS | Revista Latitud 21<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"L21, Emprendedores y Negocios en el Caribe Mexicano, es la revista l\u00edder entre el Sector Empresarial y Tur\u00edstico del Caribe Mexicano.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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